Experts Say: Will Gas Prices Go Up This Month?
Gas prices are forecasted to trend downward overall in 2026, averaging around $2.97 per gallon nationally in the U.S., marking the lowest since 2020 despite short-term volatility from seasonal demand and geopolitical risks.
Current Snapshot
The national average for regular gasoline stands at approximately $4.08 per gallon as of mid-May 2026, with diesel averaging $5.59 per gallon, reflecting recent upticks driven by spring demand and refinery maintenance. This positions prices higher than the early-year predictions but still within expected fluctuations, as tracked by AAA and EIA data.
Historical context shows a sharp decline from 2025 peaks above $5 per gallon during summer driving season, thanks to surging U.S. crude production and softer global oil demand.
Key Forecast Drivers
Crude oil prices, comprising over 50% of retail gasoline costs, are projected to stabilize below $70 per barrel through 2026 due to record U.S. output exceeding 13 million barrels daily. Refining margins, another 14% slice, may ease as maintenance seasons conclude by June.
- Global oil supply growth outpaces demand by 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 forecasts.
- U.S. shale production hits all-time highs, buffering against OPEC+ cuts.
- Ethanol blending costs drop 5% year-over-year amid abundant corn harvests.
Short-Term Volatility Outlook
- Expect a peak near $3.20 per gallon from April to June 2026, coinciding with summer driving and hurricane season risks.
- Post-June relief to $2.83 averages as demand cools and inventories rebuild.
- Regional variations: West Coast prices 20-30% above national due to refinery constraints; Gulf Coast 10% below.
| Month | Forecast Avg. | YoY Change | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | $3.10 | -12% | Post-holiday lull |
| April | $4.30 | +5% | Spring demand surge |
| July | $3.20 | -8% | Peak summer |
| December | $2.90 | -15% | Winter inventory build |
Factors Pushing Prices
Geopolitical tensions, such as renewed Middle East flare-ups, could add $0.50 per gallon in premiums if supply disruptions occur, as seen in the 2022 Ukraine crisis when prices spiked 60%. "Volatility remains the wildcard," notes GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan in a January 2026 forecast.
Domestic refining capacity, strained by 2025 outages, contributes 14% to costs; full utilization by Q3 could shave 10 cents off averages.
"U.S. drivers are likely to see lower prices at the pump this year amid lower global oil prices and strong crude production." - GasBuddy, January 2026
Historical Price Trends
From 2020 lows of $1.84 during pandemic lockdowns, gas climbed to $5.02 in June 2022 amid supply shocks, then moderated to $3.10 by late 2025. This cycle underscores seasonal demand patterns: 15-20% summer hikes followed by 25% winter drops.
EIA data reveals taxes hold steady at 16% of retail (federal 18.4¢, state avg. 32¢), providing price floor stability.
Regional Breakdown
In the Midwest, prices hover 15% below national averages thanks to pipeline access to refineries; Northeast faces 10% premiums from import reliance. Gulf states benefit most, often sub-$3 amid production hubs.
- Midwest avg: $3.45 projected annual.
- California: $4.95, driven by cap-and-trade fees.
- Texas: $2.85, lowest due to local supply.
Consumer Impact Analysis
Average U.S. household spends $2,500 yearly on fuel; a 13¢ drop from 2025 saves $50 per family, equating to $7 billion national relief. Lower prices bolster disposable income, potentially adding 0.2% to GDP growth per EIA models.
| Scenario | 15k Miles/Year | 20k Miles/Year | National Total (Billions) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base $2.97/gal | $2,228 | $2,970 | $250 |
| High $3.50/gal | $2,625 | $3,500 | $295 |
| Low $2.50/gal | $1,875 | $2,500 | $210 |
Global Context
Europe sees petrol at €1.78/L ($7.50/gal equivalent) as of April 2026, dwarfing U.S. figures due to higher taxes (50%+ of retail). Asia-Pacific trends mirror U.S., with softening amid China's economic slowdown curbing demand.
U.S. export surges of 4 million barrels daily keep domestic prices competitive globally.
Longer-Term Outlook
Beyond 2026, EIA projects averages dipping to $3.46 in 2027 as efficiency gains and hybrids erode demand 1-2% yearly. Policy shifts under President Trump emphasize production boosts, targeting sub-$3 norms by 2028.
- Increased drilling permits accelerate output.
- Refinery expansions add 500k barrels/day capacity.
- Strategic reserve releases mitigate spikes.
Practical Tips
- Track apps like GasBuddy for real-time savings up to 20¢/gal.
- Fill up mid-week; weekends average 10¢ higher.
- Combine trips to cut consumption 15% during peaks.
For drivers, the trajectory favors relief, but vigilance on crude futures and weather pays dividends. Monitor EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook for monthly tweaks.
Key concerns and solutions for Experts Say Will Gas Prices Go Up This Month
Will summer gas prices exceed $4 in 2026?
No, projections cap at $3.20 nationally, though high-demand states like California may hit $4.50 due to unique regulations and logistics.
What if oil prices rebound?
A $10/barrel crude surge translates to 25¢/gallon at pumps; current Brent futures at $68 suggest limited upside risk through year-end.
Are EV incentives impacting gas demand?
Yes, federal tax credits up to $7,500 have boosted EV adoption to 12% market share, softening gasoline demand by 2% annually.
Will geopolitical events spike prices?
Likely short-lived; past events like 2024 Red Sea disruptions added only 15¢ temporarily before inventories absorbed shocks.
How do taxes factor in?
Federal excise steady at 18.4¢/gal since 1993; states vary from 16¢ (Alaska) to 69¢ (California), totaling ~50¢ nationally.